Mesoscale Discussion 0491
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0641 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...central and northern Arkansas...southast
   Missouri...western Kentucky and southern Illinoise

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 282341Z - 290045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to continue southeast through
   the lower and middle MS Valley regions this evening. A new WW will
   likely be needed prior to 01Z from central AR through southeast MO
   and southern IL.

   DISCUSSION...Early this evening a line of strong to severe storms
   extends from central IL southwest through central MO into northeast
   and central OK moving southeast at 35 kt. A corridor of moderate to
   strong instability with 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE resides downstream
   from the line. Effective bulk shear from 40-45 kt will continue to
   support organized structures including embedded supercells and
   bowing segments. A mesolow circulation was also indicated in
   southwest MO moving east southeast. The low-level jet has increased
   to 35-40 kt in this region with 0-1 hodographs sufficient for a few
   low-level mesocyclones. While a couple of tornadoes will remain
   possible, the primary threat should be damaging wind due to expected
   predominant linear modes.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 04/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   34729398 36279242 38918885 38858776 37668845 34219234
               34729398