Mesoscale Discussion 0494
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0806 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...north central through northeast Texas into
   southwest Arkansas and northwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 290106Z - 290200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat for mainly damaging wind and
   large hail are expected to develop southeast into north-central and
   northeast Texas, southwest AR and northwest LA this evening into
   tonight. A WW will likely be issued prior to 0130Z.

   DISCUSSION...Severe storms continue developing along a
   southeast-advancing cold front from eastern through south-central
   OK. The downstream warm sector across north-central and northeast TX
   is very unstable with the 00Z RAOB from Fort Worth indicating 3500
   J/kg MLCAPE and 9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates along with 35-40 kt
   effective bulk shear. An inversion was evident near 800 mb at the
   base of an EML, and convective inhibition will increase as the
   surface layer cools. However, deep forcing and convergence along the
   southeast-advancing cold front should remain sufficient for
   additional thunderstorm development this evening into tonight. Both
   multicell line segments and some embedded supercell structures will
   be possible with large to very large hail and widespread damaging
   wind gusts the main threats, though a tornado or two cannot be ruled
   out.

   ..Dial/Edwards.. 04/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32549880 33339805 33659625 34069413 33329334 32179386
               30849685 31449831 32549880