Mesoscale Discussion 0499
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Arkansas...northeast Louisiana through
   western Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 290457Z - 290600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind might spread
   southeast into southeast AR, northeast LA and western MS in
   association with a progressive line of storms. Trends will continue
   to be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...Expansive line of storms extends from near the MS River
   in northeast AR southwest into southwestern AR moving southeast at
   35-40 kt. Some organized structures continue to be observed within
   the line. However, instability becomes increasingly marginal in the
   downstream warm sector with MUCAPE near or below 500 J/kg.
   Nevertheless modest theta-e advection and forcing associated with
   the strengthening low-level jet interacting with the advancing gust
   front might support storms continuing southeast through the lower MS
   Valley the next few hours.

   ..Dial.. 04/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32929268 33409155 33999065 33678963 33028977 32039100
               31709257 32929268