Mesoscale Discussion 0502
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

   Areas affected...central portions of the Florida Peninsula into
   southwestern Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292345Z - 300145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential risk for a couple of brief tornadoes is evident
   from central portions of the Florida Panhandle northeastward into
   southwestern Georgia.  Limited nature of the risk suggests that WW
   issuance will likely not be necessary.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a semi-continuous band of
   thunderstorms crossing the discussion area, within a narrow plume of
   500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, where southerly surface
   trajectories ahead of the front are advecting a corridor of mid to
   upper 60s dewpoints off the Gulf.

   Within this region, locally backed surface winds -- moreso than
   areas both east and west -- are contributing to enhanced low-level
   shear -- i.e. enlarged, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs and
   35 to 30 kt 0-1km shear.

   Despite largely non-discrete storm mode, individual updrafts within
   the pre-frontal convective band have exhibited periodic, weak
   low-level rotation per area WSR-88D VWPs, that occasionally tighten
   into brief tornadic-intensity circulations (as confirmed by small,
   brief CC minima).  This enhanced risk for small/brief tornadoes will
   continue for a couple of hours, until the convection shifts eastward
   -- in tandem with frontal advance -- into a drier, more stable
   low-level environment over northern Florida and southeastern
   Georgia.

   ..Goss/Edwards.. 04/29/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29728545 30038562 31538492 31958433 31888407 31408368
               30848371 29808409 29468491 29728545