Mesoscale Discussion 0503
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2020

   Areas affected...West-central coastal areas of Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 300401Z - 300530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong/damaging wind gusts may impact the immediate
   west-central coast of Florida. The Tampa/Sarasota corridor will be
   impacted by 1-130 AM EDT. The isolated wind-damage threat should
   diminish quickly as storms move inland.

   DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is approaching the
   west-central coast of Florida. Ahead of this line, dewpoints have
   risen along the immediate coast over the past hour or two. Though
   warm air aloft was observed on the 00Z TBW sounding, modest cooling
   of the mid-level profile will occur as the synoptic wave digs
   slightly southward through the overnight. Both of these factors will
   contribute to MLCAPE values of around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg.
   Farther inland, temperatures are a bit cooler and the low-level
   airmass drier. The expectation is that a narrow corridor of
   strong/damaging wind gusts may occur as the line move onshore, with
   the potential for and intensity of wind gusts diminishing as storms
   progress inland. Cloud tops on IR satellite imagery have warmed
   slightly over the past half hour; however, the strongest portion of
   the line appears to be moving in the direction of the Tampa/Sarasota
   corridor and will arrive around 1-130 AM EDT. The threat is expected
   to be both marginal and isolated. No WW is anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Edwards.. 04/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28308326 28748313 28878280 28798253 28358229 27368227
               27128264 27528300 28098328 28308326