Mesoscale Discussion 0504
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina...Southeast Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301216Z - 301445Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage is expected across parts of eastern
   North Carolina and southeast Virginia over the next couple of hours.
   Weather watch issuance appears unlikely due to the isolated and
   temporary nature of the threat.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a surface trough
   extending south-southeastward from the central Appalachians into the
   western Carolinas. A band of rainfall with embedded thunderstorms is
   ongoing to the east of the surface trough just to the east of the
   Raleigh vicinity. Surface winds are backed southeasterly across
   eastern North Carolina with surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and
   lower 60s F. This is resulting in very weak instability ahead of the
   line. In spite of this, A strong low-level jet is located from the
   Mid-Atlantic southward into east-central North Carolina where 850 mb
   winds are estimated to be in the 50 to 60 kt range. This is
   providing support for a line of thunderstorms this morning. As this
   line moves eastward across the remainder of eastern North Carolina
   and southeast Virginia, a marginal wind damage threat will be
   possible. The low-level shear may also be enough for a brief spin
   up.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36777747 35827805 34777850 34407863 34007839 33947806
               34237735 34717637 35177556 35667531 36397554 37037635
               36777747