Mesoscale Discussion 0505
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1032 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020

   Areas affected...NC Outer Banks

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301532Z - 301730Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe gusts are possible with
   an organized thunderstorm band as it moves northeastward up the NC
   coast during the midday hours.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a band of thunderstorms near Cape
   Lookout extending southward into the Gulf Stream.  Intermittent/weak
   cyclonic shear and small scale bowing segments have been observed
   with the northern portion of this band during the past 30 minutes
   over the shelf waters.  Surface temperatures have warmed into the
   lower to middle 70s F with dewpoints in the middle 60s.  The 12z MHX
   raob showed essentially no MUCAPE (12 J/kg) but the gradual
   moistening and heating this morning has resulted in 200-300 J/kg
   MLCAPE according to RAP forecast soundings.  The KMHX VAD shows an
   enlarged low-level hodograph.  Inputting observed storm motions
   yields around 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH.  

   As the band of storms progresses northeastward during the next
   couple of hours, a couple of strong to severe gusts (50-60 mph) are
   possible with the bowing segments/inflections within the band.  The
   expected coverage/magnitude of the potential severe risk will likely
   preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 04/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   34817691 35907634 36287567 35347526 34347651 34817691