Mesoscale Discussion 0506
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1236 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Oregon and southwest Idaho

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301736Z - 301900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong storms capable of marginally severe hail and
   gusty downdraft winds will be possible across portions of the
   intermountain west this afternoon. Limited storm coverage suggest a
   weather watch is not likely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Lift from an upper-level shortwave trough and a 50 to
   60 kt jet is helping to destablize the atmosphere across the
   intermountain west this morning/afternoon. Current visible satellite
   data shows a deepening trend with agitated towering cumulus along
   the ridge tops of the Steens Mountains and the western rim of the
   Snake River Valley. Several intra-cloud flashes have also been noted
   in these areas suggesting that deeper updrafts are beginning to
   coalesce and organize. Parameter space is favorable for a few high
   based supercells and organized clusters given MLCAPE near 500 J/kg
   and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Storms will likely develop off of
   the higher terrain over the next couple of hours and pose a risk for
   marginally severe hail and strong downdraft winds given favorable
   lapse rates in the low and mid-levels. A weather watch is not
   expected due to the relatively sparse coverage projected by CAMS,
   but trends will be monitored.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 04/30/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PIH...BOI...PDT...

   LAT...LON   42491423 42231458 42111527 42041641 42081701 42071771
               42151811 42231839 42311866 42331881 42671884 42991883
               43361881 43661877 43981863 44381827 44741769 44771709
               44751617 44751555 44681490 44481434 43841400 43071405
               42491423