Mesoscale Discussion 0508
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CDT Fri May 01 2020

   Areas affected...norther Colorado and southern Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011847Z - 012015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...High based storm development is likely over elevated
   terrain in the next 1 to 2 hours. Storms will be capable of
   downbursts this afternoon and evening. A watch is not expected at
   the moment but trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Lift from a shortwave trough and mid-level jet streak
   over the Great Basin and intermountain west is supporting mixing and
   destabilization across portions of Colorado and Wyoming this
   afternoon. Boundary layer cumulus has deepened over the peaks of the
   Snowy and south Laramie Ranges over the past hour as diurnal
   mountain circulation intensities have increased with surface
   heating. Mesoanalysis products support around 500 J/kg of MLCAPE
   given steep lase rates of 8 to 9 C/km in the low to mid-levels. High
   based thunderstorm development seems likely along the mountains over
   the next hour or two. Vertical shear of 40 to 50 kt from proximity
   RAP soundings is supportive of swiftly moving organized updrafts
   including a few supercells. Limited low-level moisture in the
   boundary layer will favor a damaging wind gust threat with inverted
   V profiles supportive of dry microbursts. The exact spatial coverage
   of storms is uncertain mainly due to limited instability from
   surface dewpoints in the 30s. Trends will be monitored but a watch
   is not expected at this time.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 05/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...

   LAT...LON   42040836 42470690 42510580 42460491 42120413 41920391
               41570375 41150377 40720388 40290432 40080487 39860544
               39840586 39880665 39960692 40050754 40290834 40650893
               41370900 41660879 42040836