Mesoscale Discussion 0509
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Fri May 01 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast Colorado into far southwest
   Nebraska and extreme northwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012319Z - 020115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the Colorado
   Front Range and immediate vicinity over the next few hours.
   Conditions support an isolated damaging gust or two, with the
   brevity and sparse nature of the severe threat precluding a WW
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Attempts at convective initiation continue in
   association with an agitated high-based CU field located along a
   subtle surface boundary across northeast Colorado. Glancing
   upper-level support due to a passing embedded shortwave aloft,
   combined with continued strong surface heating and modest low-level
   convergence along the aforementioned boundary, may support some
   increase in convective coverage over the next few hours. Though
   storms would occur within a deep, dry environment characterized by
   very modest MLCAPE, near 10 C/km lapse rates within a sfc-500 mb
   layer suggest that any precipitation falling from convection will
   efficiently evaporate, with ample downward transport of mass to
   support at least a couple damaging gusts.

   Nonetheless, current observations and short-term high-resolution
   model guidance suggest that storm coverage should be too sparse,
   with any associated damaging gust potential being too brief to
   warrant a WW issuance at this time.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39460457 39940482 40380466 40950361 41120250 40900179
               40370136 39850139 39510155 39300305 39460457