Mesoscale Discussion 0510
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1253 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central and northeast Utah into northwest
   Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021753Z - 022000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development, which could pose
   increasing risk for small hail and at least locally strong surface
   gusts, is expected through 3-5 PM MDT, mainly east of the Wasatch
   and south of the Uinta Mountains into northwest Colorado.

   DISCUSSION...A remnant frontal zone (roughly around 700 mb) appears
   to have provided the focus for persistent, generally weak early day
   convective development along a corridor from the Great Salt Lake
   Desert east-northeastward across the Wasatch into northwestern
   Colorado.  This has probably been aided by lift associated with weak
   lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, and perhaps a weak mid-level
   short wave trough embedded within 20-30+ kt west-southwesterly
   deep-layer ambient mean flow.  The mid-level impulse is forecast to
   progress east of the Wasatch, toward the Rockies, through 21-23Z, as
   insolation near and south of the frontal convective band contributes
   to continued deepening boundary-layer mixing.

   Precipitable water appears on the order of a relatively moist .5+
   inches along this corridor, and this may be contributing to CAPE
   around 500 J/kg or so.  With additional daytime heating, further
   intensification of convective updrafts seems probable, and sub-cloud
   thermodynamic profiles will become increasingly conducive to at
   least locally strong downdrafts.  Although low-level hodographs
   appear modest to weak, shear through the convective-layer may become
   strong enough to aid convective organization.  This may promote the
   potential for small hail, enhancing downdrafts, possible surface
   cold pool development and the risk for potentially damaging wind
   gusts.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...

   LAT...LON   40231109 40870886 40630774 39390813 39250871 38851005
               38661130 39321158 40231109