Mesoscale Discussion 0511
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0319 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast OR...Southeast WA...Western ID

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022019Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe wind/hail will be
   possible later this afternoon into the early evening. Watch issuance
   is considered unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At 20Z, WV imagery shows a well-defined shortwave
   trough beginning to move over inland portions of the Pacific
   Northwest. In advance of this system, a broad surface low is located
   over northeast OR/southeast WA, and a cold front is beginning to
   advance eastward from western into central WA/OR. Thunderstorms have
   recently developed across portions of northeast OR, with additional
   development expected into portions of far southeast WA and adjacent
   western ID later this afternoon, in conjunction with increasing
   large-scale ascent and continued boundary-layer heating. 

   SBCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective shear increasing into the
   30-40 kt range will support some storm organization with the initial
   widely scattered activity, with a corresponding risk of isolated
   marginally severe hail and locally strong downburst winds. Later
   this afternoon into the early evening, coverage of convection may
   increase in conjunction with the eastward-moving cold front,
   potentially posing a threat for more widespread strong to locally
   severe wind gusts, especially from far northeast OR into southeast
   WA. At this time, the overall threat appears too marginal for watch
   issuance.

   ..Dean/Hart.. 05/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

   LAT...LON   44552068 45302121 45702132 46172121 46732059 47691826
               47661645 46381526 45051618 44731650 43681883 43681920
               43722012 44552068