Mesoscale Discussion 0512
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Wyoming and north central
   Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022044Z - 022245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms may increasingly impact
   areas near and just east of the Front Range, including the Great
   Denver Metropolitation area, by 5-7 PM MDT.  Some of these storms
   may pose at least some risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts. 
   The relatively marginal nature of the threat still seems likely to
   preclude a severe weather watch, but trends will continue to be
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...To this point, stronger attempts at deep convective
   development to the east of the Front Range have been generally
   confined to areas west of Fort Collins and Cheyenne.  This may be
   associated with an area of enhanced lift aided by a subtle mid-level
   perturbation, as moistening easterly near surface flow and low-level
   warm advection contribute to weak boundary-layer destabilization
   across the foothills.

   Beneath 30-40 kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow, deep-layer shear is
   strong and supportive of organized convection, including supercells,
   particularly with further boundary-layer destabilization.  By late
   afternoon, largely due to continuing insolation and mid-level
   cooling, this appears possible as far south as the Greater Denver
   Metropolitan area, where 20Z surface analysis indicates low-level
   convergence and stronger (2-3 mb) 2-hourly surface pressure falls
   are becoming focused.  The environment may become conducive to
   storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and locally
   strong surface gusts.  Potential for tornadoes remains more unclear,
   but an isolated, relatively short-lived tornado may not be out of
   the question.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/02/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41700516 41220391 40360456 39590445 39310481 39190520
               39430547 40670571 41190545 41700516