Mesoscale Discussion 0513
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0827 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeast Missouri into central Illinois
   and Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030127Z - 030330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A few elevated storms may become strong enough to support
   a couple damaging gusts through the evening into the overnight
   hours. The isolated, brief nature of the wind threat suggests a WW
   issuance is not currently warranted.

   DISCUSSION...A small 700 mb impulse, located across central MO, is
   tracking east-northeastward, providing adequate ascent for
   relatively moist 700 mb air parcels to reach their LFCs resulting in
   recent convective initiation across the MO/IL border. As the impulse
   continues to progress east, a gradual increase in convection is
   expected, as supported by the latest high-resolution guidance,
   including the HRRR. The 00Z ILX sounding depicts a relatively dry
   sfc-800 mb layer, supportive of enough evaporative cooling to foster
   downward momentum transport, perhaps to the extent where damaging
   wind gusts may be observed on occasion. As the evening progresses,
   boundary layer T/Td spreads will decrease to an extent, especially
   as convection approaches a relative moist-axis, located around 850
   mb per 00Z Mesoanalysis. Diabatic cooling may slow somewhat with the
   low-level moisture increase, with buoyancy increasing after dark to
   support slightly stronger updrafts still capable of producing a
   damaging gust or two. 

   Given the sparse nature of the damaging wind threat, a WW issuance
   is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   39749193 39979205 40299207 40569165 40529019 40428704
               40348613 39788590 39178649 39218819 39399010 39559165
               39749193