Mesoscale Discussion 0514
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 PM CDT Sat May 02 2020

   Areas affected...East central Illinois into central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 030410Z - 030545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Small cluster of storms is progressing east-southeastward
   with damaging wind and occasional severe hail potential. Convection
   is likely near peak intensity, and a gradual weakening trend is
   expected over the next few hours. A WW issuance is not currently
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...A small convective cluster has recently begun
   exhibiting a bow-like  structure, with outbound velocities
   approaching 40 knots (at 0.5 degrees radar-beam elevation), with up
   to 60 dBZ noted at the -20C layer, suggesting that severe wind gusts
   and hail may be occurring with this complex. While some severe
   threat is expected to continue in the near term, this cluster is
   bisecting the corridor of weakening buoyancy (500 J/kg MUCAPE),
   suggesting that this storm cluster may be at peak intensity. Over
   time, a weakening trend may be noted over the next few hours. As
   such, a WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39378919 39828882 39918743 39428498 39158510 38858568
               38748638 38708690 38808763 39238918 39378919