Mesoscale Discussion 0515
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0605 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031105Z - 031330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat should continue for a few
   more hours this morning across southeast Kansas. The threat should
   remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing
   across south-central Kansas this morning. This convection is being
   supported by a shortwave trough moving through the central Plains,
   evident on water vapor imagery. Also, warm advection is occurring
   over a post-frontal airmass with a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet
   analyzed across northern Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. The RAP
   is showing moderate instablity across much of southeast Kansas with
   MUCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This combined with effective
   shear of 40 to 45 kt and mid-level lapse rates near 8.5 C/km will be
   favorable for isolated severe hail. The hail threat should persist
   for a few more hours as the convection moves eastward along a
   gradient of moderate instability. The wind damage threat should
   remain minimal due to the elevated nature of the storms.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38509531 38509631 38349732 37879799 37569815 37329808
               37049754 36999609 37099484 37639444 38369472 38509531