Mesoscale Discussion 0516
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest and South-central Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031258Z - 031530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated large hail threat will likely affect parts of
   southwestern Missouri over the next couple of hours, and possibly
   reach south-central Missouri later this morning. A potential may
   also exist for strong wind gusts. Weather watch can't be ruled out
   at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front from
   northeast Oklahoma into southern Missouri. A line of strong to
   severe thunderstorms is ongoing to the north of the boundary in
   southeast Kansas. This line is located along a gradient of moderate
   instability with the RAP showing an east to west corridor of MUCAPE
   in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings from
   southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri this morning show effective
   shear of 35 to 45 kt with steep mid-level lapse rates. This may be
   enough to continue a severe threat as the line moves eastward into
   southwest Missouri over the next few hours. There is some
   uncertainty concerning the longevity of the convection. To the east
   across southern Missouri, effective shear is a bit weaker and lapse
   rates are slightly less steep. This may help keep the severe threat
   isolated. Even so, the severe threat will continue to be monitored
   for possible watch issuance.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38509531 38509631 38349732 37879799 37569815 37329808
               37049754 36999609 37099484 37639444 38369472 38509531