Mesoscale Discussion 0517
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1034 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Missouri and adjacent northern
   Arkanas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157...

   Valid 031534Z - 031700Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 157
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for severe hail may continue, while the risk for
   damaging wind gusts likely increases with an evolving convective
   system spreading across the Ozark Plateau/Mid South region through
   1-3 PM CDT.  It seems probable that a new severe weather watch will
   be needed to the east-southeast of WW 157 by early afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing evolving convective system may still
   largely be rooted within the lower/mid troposphere, supported by
   lift above a developing surface cold pool and preceding warm
   advection.  However, it is maintaining intensity and continues to
   organize while propagating east-southeastward around 50 kt.  Models
   suggest that its supporting mid-level impulse may take on more of an
   easterly component, into the lower Ohio Valley through this
   afternoon, but cooling in its wake may suppress mid-level inhibition
   as far south as southeast Missouri, the Missouri Bootheel vicinity
   and adjacent portions of western Kentucky, Tennessee and northern
   Arkansas by 18-20Z.  Coupled with inflow increasingly emanating from
   a moist, warming and destabilizing boundary layer with CAPE up to
   2000 J/kg, activity may persist and could intensify further even if
   supporting large-scale forcing for ascent weakens.

   Although low-level wind fields are weak, with 40-50 kt winds above
   700 mb likely to maintain considerable speed to forward propagation,
   potential for damaging wind gusts probably will continue,
   particularly if convection continues to support a strengthening
   surface cold pool.

   ..Kerr.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   38169345 37229020 35969059 36159225 36699446 37259393
               38169345