Mesoscale Discussion 0519
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Much of Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern
   Kentucky and northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158...

   Valid 032008Z - 032115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose
   a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of relatively
   brief and weak tornadoes, across Middle Tennessee, including the
   Greater Nashville Metropolitan area by 4-5 PM CDT.  A new severe
   weather watch likely will be issued to the east of WW 158 shortly.

   DISCUSSION...Supported by inflow of moist boundary layer air with
   CAPE on the order of 1500+ J/kg, a relatively compact but organized
   and vigorous mesoscale convective system is maintaining intensity as
   it progresses east of the Mississippi River.  Based on recent radar
   trends, the severe hail threat appears to have diminished, at least
   somewhat.  However, damaging wind gusts continue to be observed,
   particularly to the southeast of the lower/mid tropospheric
   mesoscale convective vortex which may turn eastward  near/along the
   Kentucky/Tennessee border.

   System motion has shown little signs of slowing, and at around 50
   kts, convection appears on track to impact the Nashville metroplitan
   area between 4 and 5 PM CDT. 

   Maintenance of convective intensity, and continuation of associated
   severe wind and potential for relatively brief, weak tornadoes, into
   the Cumberland Plateau remains more unclear.  Based on its current
   motion, this possible by 7-8 PM EDT.  However, drier air emanating
   from southeastern U.S. surface ridging may result in less unstable
   inflow and weakening convective trends as suggested by at least some
   model output, including the last few runs of the High-resolution
   Rapid Refresh.

   ..Kerr.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36828802 37108701 37038523 37078353 36188327 35178497
               34918635 34968817 35118965 35238963 35718871 36298803
               36828802