Mesoscale Discussion 0520
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Montana...western Dakotas...northeast
   Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032010Z - 032215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible
   this afternoon within the northern High Plains. Multicells and the
   occasional supercell will be capable of large hail and strong/severe
   wind gusts. A WW is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Strong heating and increasing mid-level ascent within a
   narrow corridor of northward returning moisture has led to
   increasing destabilization across portions of the northern High
   Plains. Most guidance has underdone the currently observed
   dewpoints, with most locations remaining in the mid/uppers 40s F.
   Continued heating/mixing will likely reduce these values, but
   1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE appears to be a reasonable estimate for
   buoyancy this afternoon. A few storms have already developed in
   central Montana as well as near Glasgow, MT within the surface
   trough. Storms near Glasgow will likely weaken as they move
   northward into decreasing moisture and cooler temperatures, though
   continued development southward within the trough and within the
   Black Hills is possible. Storms within central Montana may also
   intensify as they encounter better moisture to the east. With
   effective bulk-shear at around 25-35 kts, multicells and perhaps a
   supercell or two are the likely storm modes. Steep lapse rates
   within the lower/mid-troposphere will support large hail and
   strong/severe wind gusts. The overall threat is expected to remain
   isolated and not progress very far eastward into a less favorable
   downstream environment. A WW is not anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   45540709 45700880 45870969 47270946 47500912 47910760
               48200544 47680374 45230214 44440164 43630236 43730431
               43910529 45540709