Mesoscale Discussion 0521
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Western Nebraska...far
   northwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032044Z - 032245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few supercell thunderstorms will be possible this
   afternoon. Large hail and strong/severe wind gusts will be the main
   threats. An area of enhanced low-level SRH near an outflow
   boundary/surface trough intersection exists in northeast Colorado
   and adjacent Nebraska. A brief tornado would be possible in these
   areas. Trends will continue to be monitored, but a WW is not
   anticipated this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has developed within the Nebraska
   Panhandle with increasing cumulus evident on visible satellite
   southward into northeastern Colorado. This activity is developing
   where a surface trough intersects a subtle outflow boundary in
   northern Colorado to near Sidney, NE. A pool of low 50s F dewpoints
   has boosted MLCAPE values to over 1000 J/kg. Effective shear of
   45-55 kts and steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support supercell
   thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong/severe wind gusts.
   Weak low-level flow and somewhat large T/Td spreads will limit any
   tornado threat; however, northeastern Colorado and adjacent
   southwestern Nebraska will see slightly better low-level hodographs
   near the outflow/surface trough intersection. A brief tornado is
   possible in this area. Buoyancy decreases to the east and activity
   is not expected to progress far from the High Plains. Trends will
   continue to be monitored, but a WW is not currently expected this
   evening.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41150086 40310083 39240181 38950269 38930385 39470496
               39610490 40290514 40970502 41720428 42800365 42920212
               42160123 41150086