Mesoscale Discussion 0522
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Kentucky into West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032235Z - 032330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradual increase in convective coverage and intensity is
   underway. A few of the strongest storms may produce large hail or
   damaging gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible
   WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Relatively widespread convection is underway across
   portions of the Ohio Valley towards the Central Appalachians given
   deep-layer ascent supplied by a passing mid-level shortwave and
   associated surface troughing. While low-level moisture convergence
   is present across the Ohio Valley, associated low-level flow is
   quite weak, contributing to mediocre low-level shear profiles. As
   such, convection has been relatively outflow dominant over the past
   couple of hours, with a slowly southward sagging outflow boundary
   identified by KRLX WSR-88D. Nonetheless, convection along the OH/KY
   border is embedded within stronger mid-level flow associated with
   the aforementioned trough aloft, where adequate deep-layer shear may
   support some updraft organization, despite cellular movement being
   roughly perpendicular to an outflow boundary.

   Convection will also be glancing the northern periphery of steeper
   mid-level lapse rates, that in addition to deep-layer shear, may
   support some isolated severe hail growth. In addition, a mixed out
   boundary layer (extending up to 700 mb in spots per latest RAP
   forecast soundings) farther east into West Virginia and points
   eastward may encourage a few damaging gusts, especially for
   downdrafts laden with graupel and small hail. The biggest concern
   for severe is with a the development and northeast movement of a MCV
   associated with a gradually weakening bow echo to the southwest.
   This MCV may traverse the aforementioned boundaries, where MCV
   strengthening and a subsequent, more concentrated damaging wind
   threat may occur. Conditions will continue to be monitored for the
   need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   37468105 36798284 36698406 36538506 36378564 36408648
               36528684 36888693 37248655 38118466 38848351 38988310
               39138201 39258075 39238029 38898005 38688000 38438001
               38138017 37878047 37468105