Mesoscale Discussion 0524
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0700 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040000Z - 040130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of damaging wind gusts and brief instances of
   large hail may accompany the strongest storm cores over the next
   couple of hours. Boundary layer stabilization after sunset should
   result in weakening convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Pulse convection has recently been noted by mosaic
   composite radar and visible satellite ahead of a dryline over parts
   of central Texas. These storms are developing in a very hot, dry,
   deeply mixed boundary layer, with 9+ C/km lapse rates noted within a
   sfc-500 mb layer (per latest RAP forecast soundings). The steeper
   mid-level lapse rates may promote large hail growth, though the size
   and density of hail coverage at any particular location may be
   modulated by stones falling through a deeply heated and dry column.
   However, any hail/graupel melting or rain water evaporation in such
   a column will promote ample latent cooling and associated downward
   momentum transport to perhaps support strong wind gusts. 

   Storm organization and longevity should be limited some by modest
   flow and associated weak vertical shear profiles aloft, with
   convection likely diminishing in coverage and intensity with a rapid
   cooling boundary layer after sunset. As such, any severe threat that
   materializes should be sparse and brief enough to preclude a WW
   issuance.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31380183 32520038 33229914 33209865 32719827 32059853
               31579890 31219945 31060017 31160092 31380183