Mesoscale Discussion 0525
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0959 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020

   Areas affected...the northeastern Colorado vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040259Z - 040500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and locally damaging winds across
   northeastern Colorado may continue for another couple of hours,
   before diminishing.

   DISCUSSION...An increase in convective coverage/intensity has been
   observed over the past hour across northeastern Colorado, where a
   few intense/supercell storms capable of producing large hail and
   locally damaging downdrafts have evolved.

   This development is consistent with recent CAM guidance,
   particularly the NCEP HRRR-parallel run which has modeled this
   evolution quite accurately.

   This convective uptick is occurring in tandem with a local increase
   in low-level warm advection, owing to the development of a
   southeasterly low-level jet (50 kt per recent KGLD WSR-88D VWP). 
   While only a narrow axis of instability is indicated (confined to
   the high Plains of eastern Colorado), expect the strengthening
   low-level southeasterly flow to maintain robust updrafts for the
   next couple of hours.  Afterward, continued buondary-layer
   cooling/stabilization should yield a gradual decrease in storm
   intensity.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39000444 39530456 40470359 40950220 40070186 39600206
               39180304 39000444