Mesoscale Discussion 0526
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Colorado...Northern Kansas...Southern
   Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 040639Z - 040915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible over the
   next few hours from northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas and
   southwest Nebraska. Although weather watch issuance is not expected,
   the area will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
   southeast Colorado with a post-frontal airmass in place across
   northeast Colorado. Scattered strong thunderstorms are ongoing in
   this post-frontal airmass near and to the west of the nose of a 40
   to 50 kt low-level jet. This convection is supported by large-scale
   ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough moving eastward
   across the central High Plains. Although the RAP is estimating
   MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across much of the central High
   Plains, effective shear is likely above 50 kt. This combined with
   steep mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for supercells with
   isolated large hail. Although the storms should remain elevated, a
   few strong wind gusts will also be possible. The area downshear
   across south-central Nebraska and north-central to eastern Kansas
   will be monitored for a more robust severe threat later this
   morning.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38980305 39350358 39860367 40490344 40750271 40810126
               40749931 40259868 39639867 39219898 38979962 38940220
               38980305