Mesoscale Discussion 0527
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...Northern and Eastern
   Kansas...Far Southwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041050Z - 041145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms associated with large hail and
   isolated wind damage appear likely to develop across parts of the
   central Plains this morning. The severe threat may also affect parts
   of southwest Missouri. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
   far southeast Colorado with low-level moisture maximized to the
   southeast of the low in Oklahoma. Low-level moisture lessens with
   northward extent across southern and central Kansas. The
   distribution of instability is similar to that of low-level
   moisture, with MUCAPE maximized near 3500 J/kg in Oklahoma. A
   gradient of instability is present in central and southeast Kansas
   near an elevated warm front. Short-term model forecasts develop a
   northwest to southeast band of thunderstorms just after daybreak
   along the gradient of instability. Initially, the storms will be
   elevated. Strong effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates
   will be favorable for supercells with large hail. As surface
   temperatures warm, the chance for surface-based thunderstorms will
   increase, making wind damage a possibility. As the exact corridor
   with the greatest severe threat becomes more certain, weather watch
   issuance will likely be needed across parts of the central Plains to
   the Ozarks this morning.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   GLD...

   LAT...LON   36889497 36889396 37979380 39479625 40469820 40519904
               40259947 39399968 38009755 36889497