Mesoscale Discussion 0528
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0900 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into
   western/southern MO...eastern OK...and western AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...

   Valid 041400Z - 041530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest short-term severe hail threat should focus
   across parts of eastern KS into western MO. Isolated severe wind
   gusts are possible too. Additional storms that have formed over
   eastern OK may require watch issuance into parts of northern AR if
   they continue to increase in coverage and intensity.

   DISCUSSION...Several severe hail producing supercells elevated above
   a low-level inversion continue across parts of central/eastern KS
   this morning. Very steep mid-level lapse rates observed by the 12Z
   DDC sounding have overspread this region along with a strong
   south-southwesterly low-level jet evident from the KICT VWP. Current
   expectations are for these elevated supercells to continue moving
   east-southeastward along an instability gradient across eastern KS
   into western MO. Large hail, generally in the 1-2 inch diameter
   range, should continue to be the main threat in the short term. But,
   a couple instances of even larger hail up to 2.75 inches in diameter
   have already occurred given a favorable storm mode, steep mid-level
   lapse rates, and 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear. Isolated severe
   wind gusts may also become a greater concern later this morning as
   diurnal heating acts to erode a low-level stable layer and some
   clustering of the ongoing storms occurs.

   Farther south, additional elevated storms have formed over far
   northeastern OK in a similar regime, but with even more MUCAPE
   present compared to locations farther north (upwards of 2000-3000
   J/kg). This activity should develop into parts of far southern MO
   and perhaps northwestern AR over the next couple of hours. Depending
   on storm coverage, intensity, and motion, an additional Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch may be warranted for parts of northern AR.

   ..Gleason.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39879784 39709530 39079389 36769240 36139252 35719312
               35389391 35339482 35899490 36479521 37079588 37869592
               38229753 38929788 39499820 39879784