Mesoscale Discussion 0529
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS into MO and northern AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...162...

   Valid 041538Z - 041715Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161, 162
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Both a large hail and severe/damaging wind threat will
   continue through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Storms continue late this morning across parts of
   eastern KS into western MO and far northwestern AR in association
   with an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the central Plains and
   pronounced southerly low-level warm advection. Numerous instances of
   large hail have occurred, along with some measured severe winds and
   related damage. Current expectations are for the ongoing cluster in
   the vicinity of Topeka, KS at 1530Z to continue east-southeastward
   along an instability gradient/warm front for at least the next
   couple of hours. The main threat with this small cluster will likely
   become scattered severe/damaging winds, some of which have already
   been estimated and measured between 70-80 mph. Isolated large hail
   also remains possible, especially with a supercell on the
   southwestern flank of the cluster.

   Ongoing supercells moving into western MO and far northern AR are
   also beginning to merge and interact with one another.  Given
   sufficient buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear, large hail
   generally between 1-2 inches in diameter should remain a concern in
   the short term. By the early afternoon and with continued cell
   mergers/interactions, these storms may also have a tendency to form
   into one or more bowing clusters moving east-southeastward along a
   warm front across parts of central/southern MO and northern AR. If
   this occurs, then damaging winds would likely become a greater
   threat.

   ..Gleason.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
   ICT...

   LAT...LON   38349662 39309605 39309379 38309212 37509117 36459072
               35909081 35429111 35399217 35699342 36019405 36339434
               37009454 37109471 37589593 38349662