Mesoscale Discussion 0530
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of MO and northern AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161...162...

   Valid 041804Z - 041930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161, 162
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Both a large hail and damaging wind threat continues this
   afternoon. The greatest wind threat in the near term should focus
   across parts of west-central into southern Missouri.

   DISCUSSION...A small but well organized bowing cluster over
   west-central MO has produced multiple measured severe wind gusts
   over the past several hours, including a 64 kt (74 mph) gust at KLXT
   and a 50 kt (58 mph) gust at KGLY. Antecedent precipitation is
   occurring downstream of this cluster in central/eastern MO and a
   less unstable airmass exists with eastward extent towards St. Louis.
   Accordingly, a more favorable trajectory for this ongoing cluster
   should be southeastward along the elevated instability gradient into
   south-central MO over the next couple of hours. Strong to severe
   wind gusts capable of producing at least isolated damage will likely
   remain the primary threat with this activity in the short term.

   Farther south, some of the mainly elevated supercells posing an
   isolated large hail threat have recently weakened as they move into
   a somewhat less unstable airmass. There is still some possibility
   for additional restrengthening of this activity as it moves
   east-southeastward this afternoon, as diurnal heating supports
   gradually increasing buoyancy. With time, the small cluster
   currently in west-central MO may eventually merge with this leading
   activity and pose more of a damaging wind threat.

   ..Gleason.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   38029451 38489413 38899404 39049326 38139173 36959093
               36009082 35549107 35539271 36019317 36929362 37419451
               38029451