Mesoscale Discussion 0531
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0121 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...southwest
   Missouri...northwest Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041821Z - 042015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Initially cellular thunderstorm development along a
   pre-frontal wind shift is likely within 2-3 hours. These storms will
   quickly become severe and be capable of all severe hazards. A strong
   tornado will be possible near the KS/MO/OK/AR border region where
   low-level hodographs are more favorable. A tornado watch will be
   needed within the next couples of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a southward moving cold front, cumulus clouds
   have begun to become increasingly agitated within a zone of upper
   60s F dewpoints in the northeast Oklahoma vicinity. Current
   observations indicate that the likely zone of initiation will be
   along the pre-frontal wind shift. With 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE and
   45-60 kts of effective shear, the initial storms that develop are
   likely to be supercells capable of large/very large hail,
   strong/severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. An area of enhanced
   low-level veering, observed in KSGF/KINX VAD data, is present along
   and near the warm front placed near the OK/AR/MO/KS border region. A
   strong tornado or two will be possible in this region. One
   uncertainty is how quickly the cold front will undercut initially
   cellular activity as it has reached the south-central
   KS/north-central OK border. With surface observations showing a
   deepening surface cyclone in central OK, it is possible that the
   eastern portions of this front in southeastern KS will slow its
   progression and allow for a longer window of opportunity for
   tornadic activity. With storm initiation likely within the next 2-3
   hours, a WW will be needed within the next couple of hours.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36129638 36839649 37559565 37489419 37429411 36659380
               35679448 35459551 35609601 36129638