Mesoscale Discussion 0532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO...far southwestern
   KY...northeastern AR...and western/middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041902Z - 042100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should continue to increase this
   afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and
   perhaps a couple tornadoes all appear possible. One or more watches
   may be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The airmass to the south of a weak surface boundary
   continues to slowly destabilize this afternoon across parts of
   northeastern AR into western/middle TN. Although low-level flow
   currently remains rather modest per the KNQA VWP, mid-level westerly
   flow will continue to strengthen over the next few hours with the
   approach a low-amplitude shortwave trough from the Plains. It
   remains unclear whether the ongoing strong to severe convection in
   north-central AR will strengthen further once it encounters greater
   instability towards the MS River. If it does, then both a damaging
   wind and large hail threat would increase. Regardless, the ongoing
   bowing cluster now moving into central MO will probably continue to
   pose a damaging wind threat through the remainder of the afternoon
   into the early evening as it develops into southern/southeastern MO.
   With Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 scheduled to expire at 20Z, a new
   watch or watch extension may be needed within the next hour.
   Finally, low-level south-southwesterly flow is forecast to slowly
   strengthen through the evening across the Mid-South vicinity. This
   may support an increased threat for a couple tornadoes, mainly
   across parts of western/middle TN along the weak surface boundary
   where low-level flow will be locally backed to east-southeasterly.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...

   LAT...LON   36108590 35718557 35208606 35058629 35118764 35329000
               35389094 35929070 36529067 36619099 37089096 37629094
               37248994 36748837 36318665 36108590