Mesoscale Discussion 0534
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0346 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Central/south-central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042046Z - 042245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Cumulus clouds have formed and become increasingly
   agitated in a highly unstable environment across central Oklahoma.
   While capping remains, the potential for rapidly developing intense
   storms has increased. Initiation may not occur for 1-2 more hours,
   per latest CAMs guidance. Large to very large hail and strong/severe
   wind gusts will be primary threats. A new WW or possible extension
   of WW 163 may be needed should trends in initiation become more
   clear.

   DISCUSSION...The likelihood of storm initiation is increasing near
   and south of the Oklahoma City metro area, per visible satellite
   imagery. A line of cumulus along a pre-frontal wind shift has been
   deepening over the last half hour. The 17Z LMN and 19Z sounding
   sampled mid-level lapse rates of near 9 C/km. With upper 60s F
   dewpoints south of OKC and east of I-35, MLCAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg
   has been objectively analyzed across central Oklahoma. Residual
   capping, however, remains in place on the 19Z OUN sounding.
   Observational trends support the signal from the latest CAMS that
   development will not occur for another 1-2 hours. When/if the cap is
   breached, rapid storm intensification can be expected given the
   buoyancy present. Deep-layer shear of around 35-40 kts will be
   sufficient for organized storms capable of large/very large hail and
   strong/severe wind gusts. Veered low-level winds should limit the
   tornado threat, particularly with western extent. A new watch or
   possible local extension of WW 163 may be needed as
   development/evolution become more clear.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35529672 34629641 34069637 33649667 33669740 33799795
               34089804 34959785 35599775 36159757 36269726 36129684
               35529672