Mesoscale Discussion 0540
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020
Areas affected...Portions of northern Georgia into western South
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 050408Z - 050545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An MCS will likely continue eastward with a threat for
isolated damaging gusts. The MCS may maintain structure into the
evening, though a stabilizing boundary layer will limit the damaging
wind threat to a degree. A downstream WW issuance is not currently
expected.
DISCUSSION...A leading line/trailing stratiform MCS persists across
portions of northwest Georgia, accompanied by a mid-level mesolow,
indicative of a highly organized, coherent structure in progress.
Despite MCS organization and stronger flow aloft, a cooling,
stabilizing boundary layer has encouraged gradual weakening of the
MCS leading line. While mesoscale ascent associated with the mesolow
will promote the development of additional convective cells
near/within the ongoing complex through the night, boundary layer
stabilization casts doubt regarding widespread severe wind
potential, though a couple damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.
Given the localized and brief nature of the damaging gust threat, a
WW issuance is not currently anticipated.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 05/05/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 34518589 35118563 35398515 35338429 35068252 34668133
34238108 33798116 33528154 33728301 34018414 34268533
34518589
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