Mesoscale Discussion 0543
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0344 PM CDT Tue May 05 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 052044Z - 052245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated convection remains possible this afternoon, with
   hail/wind likely in any mature convection. A WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Although an isolated storm has materialized in eastern
   Brazoria county and a few updrafts have resulted in radar echoes
   across Tyler/Jasper Counties, general indications are that the cap
   is holding strong across the discussion area.  Weak/diffuse
   sea-breeze and cold frontal boundaries continue to provide
   convergence such that isolated storms may develop through the
   afternoon despite negligible forcing aloft.  This potential also
   remains supported by recent CAMs.  Very steep mid-level lapse rates
   (approaching 8.8 C/km based on RAP soundings) and continued
   insolation will maintain very strong buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE),
   which should support strong downdrafts and hail near any mature
   storm.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 05/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29719689 30249646 30789533 31179367 31229256 30809224
               30319247 30049315 29669419 29269519 28899602 28989656
               29719689