Mesoscale Discussion 0545
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0138 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020

   Areas affected...south-central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 071838Z - 072115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may become severe with large hail the primary
   concern later this afternoon, from south-central Kansas into
   northeast Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...Storms persist as of 18Z over parts of
   central/south-central KS, north of a surface warm front but in a
   zone of warm advection up to 600 or 700 mb. The storms are being fed
   by southwesterlies aloft, and supported by elevated instability with
   the MUCAPE axis from central KS into the OK/TX Panhandles.

   As the upper trough approaches from the northwest, large-scale lift
   will continue to be favorable, and forecast soundings indicate that
   moisture in the 800-700 mb layer will become better established.
   This may support a few severe storms capable of hail, as deep-layer
   effective shear also is enhanced. It is unclear at this time whether
   storm coverage will necessitate a watch this afternoon.

   ..Jewell/Hart.. 05/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36829786 37109821 37589852 38299848 38449802 38179674
               37779586 36869500 36419497 36129528 36079557 36529668
               36699742 36829786