Mesoscale Discussion 0546
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Texas South Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071940Z - 072145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm or two capable of strong/severe wind gusts will
   occur this afternoon. Isolated large hail may also occur. No WW
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A storm has initiated along a subtle bulge in the
   dryline north of Fort Stockton as temperatures to the west have
   risen to the low 100s F. There appears to be a narrow window where
   storms will intensify as they move east into mid/upper 50s F
   dewpoints. The boundary layer is deeply mixed up to and even above
   500 mb. A storm or two this afternoon will primarily be capable of
   strong to severe caliber outflow winds. Large hail will also be
   possible on an isolated basis given cold temperatures aloft and
   marginal effective shear values. A greater hail threat will be
   limited by capping east of the dryline where moisture/buoyancy is
   greater. Activity is expected to remain isolated and it is uncertain
   how far east it will persist given increased MLCIN and no
   upper-level support. No WW is anticipated.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31150341 31940279 32200200 31800116 31090103 30710173
               30520246 30600323 30880336 31150341