Mesoscale Discussion 0547
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Texas Panhandle...northwest Texas...western
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072049Z - 072245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm initiation is probable within the southeastern Texas
   Panhandle into southwestern Oklahoma. Large/very large hail will be
   possible. There is potential for 3+ inch hailstones. Severe wind
   gusts are also possible. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Storm
   coverage is uncertain, but any storm is likely to be intense. A WW
   may be needed. Trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The coverage of high-based cumulus clouds has increased
   over the past hour from near Amarillo to Childress. West Texas
   Mesonet observations have shown a rapid veering of winds west of
   Amarillo coincident with this development. Surface dewpoints are
   generally in the low/mid 50s F across the region, though an area of
   upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints are still in place near the
   Childress vicinity into far southwestern Oklahoma. Given the
   slightly better moisture and increased convergence, this zone
   appears to be the most probable area of storm initiation within a
   couple of hours. This has been supported by several CAM solutions
   today. The 19Z AMA sounding sampled steep low/mid-level lapse rates
   with 50-60 kts of effective shear. Storms in this environment will
   be supercellular and capable of large to very large (potentially 3+
   inches) as well as severe wind gusts. Modest low-level veering of
   winds may support a brief tornado. A greater tornado threat should
   be limited by less than favorable low-level moisture. Storm coverage
   is uncertain given the lack of upper-level forcing. However, storms
   that develop are likely to be intense. Trends will be monitored for
   a possible WW.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35660123 35970117 36460086 36879999 36749964 35639920
               34639907 33759944 33349985 33400034 33720087 34890122
               35660123