Mesoscale Discussion 0549
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0604 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020

   Areas affected...Far southwest Oklahoma and west North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170...

   Valid 072304Z - 080000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 170
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Very large to occasionally giant hail likely for the next
   2 hours across far southwest Oklahoma and west North Texas.

   DISCUSSION...A supercell near Childress has recently split with the
   left split moving northeastward in southwest Oklahoma. This storm
   split was well advertised by the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast system while
   most other short term guidance including the HRRR and HRRR-P suggest
   storm initiation should just be getting started now. In addition,
   the WoFS suggests the strongest updraft helicity may occur in the
   next 1 to 2 hours. Current observations and short-term mesoscale
   evolution of the environment (strengthening LLJ and northward
   moisture advection) also support this, indicating that hail even
   larger than the 3.25" that has been reported so far, may be possible
   as the supercell further intensifies. The left-mover will likely
   only persist for another county or two before encountering less
   buoyant air as it continues northeast.

   ..Bentley.. 05/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34999988 35159938 35029896 34239877 33949881 33889946
               34189998 34610018 34999988