Mesoscale Discussion 0550
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0643 PM CDT Thu May 07 2020

   Areas affected...Southwest Kansas...Northwest Oklahoma...Northeast
   Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 072343Z - 080045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 01z.
   Hail and wind are expected with convection this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cu field is slowly expanding in areal coverage
   across portions of southwestern KS, extending north along sharpening
   cold front. This is partly due to low-level moisture advancing
   rapidly north across western OK into southwest KS (surface dew point
   is now 54F at DDC). Mid-level heights will continue falling across
   the central Plains this evening and large-scale forcing for ascent
   should aid convective development along the frontal zone over the
   next few hours. Once convection develops, an upward-evolving
   thunderstorm cluster is expected to propagate southeast along a warm
   front that is currently draped from southwest KS into southeast OK.
   With time, LLJ will increase markedly into central OK late this
   evening and a more expansive southeast-moving MCS should spread
   toward the Oklahoma City metro. Large hail will be common with
   supercells and damaging wind threat should increase as MCS becomes
   more linear in nature.

   ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36100126 37900045 38029875 37229816 35489965 36100126