Mesoscale Discussion 0560
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0842 PM CDT Fri May 08 2020

   Areas affected...Deep South Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 090142Z - 090245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms to the west of the Rio
   Grande River may spread into Deep South Texas accompanied by
   increasing potential for strong wind gusts through 9-11 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous late afternoon thunderstorms near Monterrey,
   Mexico and along higher terrain to its north-northwest appear to
   have generated a substantive surface cold pool, along which new
   thunderstorms continue to form as it slowly advances toward the Rio
   Grande River.  The most prominent new convective development appears
   to be clustering along the northern flank of the outflow, near an
   intersecting weak surface front which has advanced south of Laredo. 

   Although activity is embedded within light northwesterly to westerly
   deep-layer mean flow, there may be enough shear due to turning of
   winds with height to allow for modest easterly or northeasterly
   inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE
   of 2000+ J/kg, in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates.  This
   may support continuing upscale convective growth and intensification
   near/southwest through south of Zapata, TX, which could begin to
   produce strong surface gusts in association with a strengthening
   surface cold pool and possible intensifying rear inflow through
   02-04Z.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27719978 27859892 27519792 26759810 26089842 25859927
               26559996 27240013 27719978