Mesoscale Discussion 0561
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 AM CDT Sun May 10 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Indiana...Ohio...northern Kentucky...far
   southern Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101620Z - 101845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail or wind is possible after 18Z
   mainly from Indiana into Ohio.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front and deepening surface trough will continue
   to move east across southern Lower MI, IN, OH and northern KY this
   afternoon. Temperatures aloft are very cold, naturally resulting in
   steep lapse rates. MUCAPE over 500 J/kg will develop over the next
   few hours, with a narrow plume of 40s F dewpoints.

   A few showers and weak thunderstorms currently exist over parts of
   central/northern IN, and an expansion and intensification of storms
   along the cold front is likely with continued heating. While linear
   structures are possible along the front, shear profiles are also
   favorable for individual cells with slightly backed low-level winds
   east of the pressure trough. Therefore, marginal hail and wind will
   both be possible.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
   IND...

   LAT...LON   38028395 37828589 37958642 38368654 39238618 40028590
               41208572 41648559 41958525 42038452 42068381 41798182
               41628132 41448129 40968132 40308166 39268236 38508308
               38028395