Mesoscale Discussion 0563
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

   Areas affected...Central and eastern Ohio into western
   Pennsylvania...northeastern Kentucky and West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102236Z - 102300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may continue to accompany
   showers and thunderstorms overspreading the region, through about
   7-9 PM EDT, before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

   DISCUSSION...Lightning production has trended downward with the lead
   band of convection, strongly forced by a vigorous short wave trough
   now approaching the Allegheny Plateau.  However, the boundary layer
   remains relatively warm and deeply mixed, with sizable near surface
   temperature dew point spreads, ahead of activity into the western
   slopes of the Appalachians, particularly across parts of
   northwestern into central West Virginia.  This could allow for a
   continuation of downdraft enhanced surface gusts into the 23-01Z
   time frame, before the onset of boundary-layer cooling results in
   stabilizing near surface lapse rates.

   Meanwhile, a combination of low-level moistening associated with
   preceding precipitation, coupled with mid-level cooling has
   contributed to sufficient destabilization to support scattered new
   thunderstorm development ahead of a trailing cold front. While this
   activity may still be strengthening to the east and northeast of the
   Cincinnati area, potential for strong surface gusts seems at least
   somewhat diminished in the presence of a cooler more moist boundary
   layer.  However, small hail and localized strong surface gusts
   approaching severe limits may not be out of the question through
   around sunset.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   41358282 41588154 40818037 39398049 38248129 37628244
               37648429 38188478 38898414 39798378 41358282