Mesoscale Discussion 0564
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 PM CDT Sun May 10 2020

   Areas affected...Northeastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of
   the Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102325Z - 110130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A relatively localized area of developing thunderstorms
   may spread southeast of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, before
   gradually intensifying and perhaps posing a risk for at least
   marginally severe hail and wind through 7-9 PM MDT.

   DISCUSSION...The initiation of thunderstorm activity is ongoing
   where low-level convergence has become locally enhanced near the
   Sangre de Cristo Mountains, west of Raton, NM.  This may be
   supported by updraft inflow of most unstable CAPE up to 1000 J/kg
   across the higher terrain.  Into the plains to the east and south,
   CAPE is progressively weaker, but moistening on southeasterly
   upslope flow, along and southwest of a stalled frontal zone, may
   still contribute to at least some further destabilization into early
   evening, in the presence of rather steep lower/mid tropospheric
   lapse rates.

   Various model output, including at least some convection allowing
   guidance, have indicated that strengthening convective development
   may propagate southeastward off the higher terrain, and across
   northeastern New Mexico, through the 01-03Z time frame.  The frontal
   zone seems the most likely focus for this, along which strengthening
   (to 30+ kt) southeasterly to southwesterly flow in the 850 to 700 mb
   layer, beneath 30-40+ kt northwesterly 500 mb flow, may contribute
   to rather strong vertical shear.  

   This environment may become conducive to isolated supercell
   development transitioning to a small organizing cluster of storms
   which could become capable of producing strong surface gusts, in
   addition to at least marginally severe hail.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36560408 36240349 35710259 35310238 35030325 35250407
               35730473 36130475 36560408