Mesoscale Discussion 0565
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1156 AM CDT Mon May 11 2020

   Areas affected...parts of New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111656Z - 111930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop over the next
   several hours. Isolated severe potential is most probable from
   Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire and Maine.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a deepening low over NH/VT,
   which is forecast to drift slowly east today. Relatively warm
   surface temperatures have developed east of the low, and additional
   heating is possible through breaks in the clouds. Southerly winds
   are supporting rising dewpoints through the 40s F. Given cold
   temperatures aloft, SBCAPE around 500-750 J/kg is possible later
   today, but MLCAPE may not exceed 500 J/kg.

   Scattered storms are possible over much of the region today, but
   backed low-level winds east of the surface low/trough, along with
   slightly greater instability may favor parts of MA, NH, and southern
   ME. Marginally severe hail and wind will be possible. A low-topped
   supercell cannot be ruled out near the low, as effective-layer SRH
   increases to 100-150 m2/s2.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...

   LAT...LON   42517242 43127238 43697207 44037119 43987068 43757024
               43437026 43007062 42527077 42127110 41957129 41857174
               41957221 42157231 42517242