Mesoscale Discussion 0566
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico...Texas South
   Plains...Trans-Pecos

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112038Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage and intensity is expected to increase this
   afternoon and evening as moisture continues to return northwestward
   into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging wind
   gusts will be the main threats. A brief tornado may occur with
   discrete storms interacting with the surface boundary. With time,
   upscale growth may produce a linear segment or two and wind gusts
   would become the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...A weak surface low has developed in northeastern NM in
   response to a shortwave trough moving through the Four Corners.
   Moist southeasterly flow into West Texas and eastern New Mexico has
   lifted dewpoints into the low/mid 50s F. Moisture advection should
   continue through the afternoon and increase as the low-level jet
   strengthens during the evening. A couple of thunderstorms have
   already initiated along the higher terrain in southern New Mexico
   with cumulus continuing to build within the Davis Mountains. So far,
   storms have weakened as they have move into Plains where MLCIN
   remains. Farther north, activity has been minimal with moisture
   being lower and cloud cover keeping temperatures cooler. Other storm
   development is possible near a surface boundary situated across the
   Panhandle into central Texas.

   Deep-layer shear across the region will range from 25-40 kts with
   higher values toward the north. A few multicell clusters and
   supercell structures are possible, some of which may eventually grow
   upscale into small linear segments. Steep low/mid-level lapse rates
   will foster a risk for large hail and damaging winds. A brief
   tornado may occur with discrete activity in the vicinity of the
   surface boundary where low-level SRH will be maximized. Linear
   segments that interact with the surface boundary will pose the
   greatest risk for damaging winds and will likely last longer given
   the improved low-level forcing.

   Trends will be monitored for a possible WW later this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   30030362 31020410 33010460 35240415 35670312 34840189
               32960174 31500198 30660172 29900180 29660278 29670318
               30030362