Mesoscale Discussion 0567
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0531 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of northeastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle
   and South Plains...adjacent western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112231Z - 120030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A southeastward advancing line of storms may continue to
   gradually intensify and organize while spreading into and across the
   Texas Panhandle vicinity through 8-10 PM.  A severe weather watch
   seems probable at some point, although it remains uncertain how
   soon.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing line of thunderstorms continues to evolve and
   spread southeastward away from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  This
   appears to be on the southern periphery of a mid-level short wave
   trough now digging east of the Colorado/northern New Mexico Rockies.
   Activity appears to be advancing through a narrow corridor of
   stronger boundary layer heating, which has contributed to some
   recent intensification, but low-level moisture and CAPE are fairly
   modest.

   Better low-level moisture return on southerly low-level flow across
   the Texas South Plains is contributing to more substantive
   mixed-layer CAPE as far north as a remnant stalled frontal zone/zone
   of stronger differential surface heating, near/north of the Lubbock
   area.  The baroclinic zone extends northwestward toward the Raton
   Mesa vicinitiy, and low-level warm advection along/above the cooler
   boundary-layer air to the north of the front may contribute to a
   continued gradual upscale convective growth and intensification of
   the southeastward advancing ongoing line of storms into early
   evening.  

   Although CAPE along/above the front north-northwest of Lubbock may
   be more modest, strengthening southeasterly low-level flow beneath
   northwesterly mid-level flow will contribute to strong deep-layer. 
   This will provide support for increasing convective organization
   which may be accompanied by increasing potential for strong surface
   gusts across at least southern portions of the Texas Panhandle
   through 01-03Z, much as recently depicted by the High Resolution
   Rapid Refresh.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36180278 36960251 36590164 35680054 34589977 33729992
               33170052 33040222 33610288 34270348 34800424 35250355
               36180278