Mesoscale Discussion 0568
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

   Areas affected...southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...

   Valid 112318Z - 120045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Gradual intensification of multi-cell clusters and
   isolated supercells has been noted over the last hour. Storms will
   likely maintain intensity and pose a risk for isolated large hail
   and damaging wind gusts this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong and severe storms have started to mature across
   southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas. 22z SPC mesoanalysis
   showed 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE supported by dewpoints in the upper
   40s to mid 50s and surface temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s F.
   Effective shear magnitudes of 25 to 30 kt will support some
   organization into multi-cell clusters and supercells capable of
   large hail and damaging winds. Hi-res guidance shows some upscale
   growth is possible this evening as cold pools become better
   organized. 

   Shear is greatest farther north, closer to the main shortwave trough
   moving through the region from the northwest. A more favored
   corridor of severe potential is taking shape from near KSNK to KFST.
   Here, instability and stronger vertical shear have the best overlap
   and a supercell near KFST has recently produced a 58 kt gust at 2257
   and 1.75 inch hail. A favorable environment should keep severe
   potential high with this storm and any others that are able to
   develop. Farther southwest, greater MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg from
   warmer temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 F will still support
   isolated severe potential, mainly in the form of damaging wind
   gusts, with thunderstorms developing off of the higher terrain near
   the Big Bend.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29830263 29350286 28990314 29040346 29320401 29510442
               29730458 29940461 30690465 31500460 32060443 32470434
               32790391 32840319 32850277 32920185 32900112 32690084
               32240088 31680092 31100084 30360119 30120144 29910209
               29830263