Mesoscale Discussion 0569
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0842 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

   Areas affected...southwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...

   Valid 120142Z - 120315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe weather will likely continue for a few more hours
   with a cluster of strong to severe cells near Fort Stockton. The
   increase in nocturnal inhibition across the rest of WW176 will limit
   the severe threat primarily to the aforementioned stronger storms.

   DISCUSSION...Radar trends from far southwest Texas show a cluster of
   storms near Fort Stockton continue to exhibit strong reflectivity
   aloft and occasional dual-pol hail signatures. SPC mesoanalysis
   indicates these storms are ongoing in an environment characterized
   by MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg and increasing low-level inhibition.
   00z MAF and DRT soundings show support for organized convection
   capable of large hail and strong wind gusts across the area with
   steep mid-level lapse-rates near 8 C/km. Veering but weak wind
   profiles, 25 to 35 kt of effective bulk shear, support a mixture of
   supercells and organized clusters with upscale growth likely as
   storm interactions increase with other weaker cells developing to
   the south. The development of the nocturnal low-level jet will
   likely increase the coverage of weaker convection to the south of
   the main cluster over the next few hours. This suggests that the
   threat for severe weather will likely continue for a few more hours
   before nocturnal inhibition and influences from surrounding
   convection reduce overall convective intensity.

   ..Lyons/Grams.. 05/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31340179 30650172 30130183 29860193 29830221 29820256
               29940301 30210340 30470362 30590364 30880374 31460356
               31750332 31680268 31630217 31550195 31530195 31340179