Mesoscale Discussion 0570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0845 PM CDT Mon May 11 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle/northwest Texas and
   southwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...

   Valid 120145Z - 120315Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The evolution of a more organized cluster of storms with
   increasing potential to produce strong surface gusts remains
   possible across the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into western north
   Texas through 10 PM-Midnight CDT.  Trends will continue to be
   monitored for the possibility of an additional watch to the east of
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in convective development and
   intensity has occurred the past few hours, with at least a couple of
   storm clusters and discrete supercell development ongoing across the
   Texas Panhandle/South Plains vicinity.  Some of this has already
   produced locally strong surface gusts and severe hail.

   Aided by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid
   tropospheric warm advection, a continued gradual consolidation of
   convection appears possible into the 03-05Z time frame.  It appears
   that the centroid of activity may tend to become focused near or
   southwest of Childress TX, where strongest 2-hourly surface pressure
   falls (near 3 mb) have recently become evident in surface
   observations.

   Although low-level moisture is seasonably modest, lapse rates are
   steep and deep-layer shear, in particular, is becoming quite strong
   due to continued strengthening of south/southeasterly low-level flow
   (30+ kt around 850 mb) beneath 30-40 kt westerly/northwesterly
   mid-level flow.  This environment could still support the evolution
   of a more organized convective system with increasing potential to
   produce strong surface gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 05/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35770051 35069953 34239913 33159937 32650101 33310363
               34170272 35060233 36370209 35770051