Mesoscale Discussion 0576
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 PM CDT Wed May 13 2020

   Areas affected...Trans-Pecos into the Edwards Plateau

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 131922Z - 132115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Cumulus is continuing to deepen in the Davis Mountains.
   Initially discrete storms will be capable of large/very large hail
   and severe wind gusts. Marginal deep-layer shear and a deeply mixed
   boundary layer will favor strong downdrafts and upscale growth. A
   transition to primarily a wind threat is expected towards the early
   evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Cumulus have formed and deepened near the dryline
   within the Davis Mountains. Continued heating/mixing will likely
   lead to storm initiation within the next 1-2 hours. 18Z MAF sounding
   sampled mid-level lapse rates of near 9 C/km. To the east of this
   development, moist southeasterly flow has increased dewpoints in to
   the upper 50s and low 60s F. Storms will encounter 2000-2500 J/kg
   MLCAPE as they progress slowly eastward. With only a weak
   upper-level shortwave moving through New Mexico, deep-layer shear
   will be on the margins for supercells. Furthermore, the deeply mixed
   boundary layer will tend to favor strong downdrafts and relatively
   quick upscale growth. Strong/severe wind gusts are likely to be the
   primary threats. The greatest risk for very large hail should occur
   with initial development where more discrete storm modes are
   possible. Even with less favorable storm mode later in the
   convective cycle, very steep mid-level lapse rates will continue to
   foster some potential for large hail. How far east the
   cluster/linear segment that evolves this evening can make it will
   depend on how mature/organized the cold pool becomes. Forecast
   soundings do indicate some capping will be in place to the east, but
   a deep enough cold pool would have potential to overcome the
   inhibition. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30610368 31810294 32550110 32209974 31339948 30230053
               29740134 29730226 29670287 29780335 30020356 30610368